Welcome to my webpage!
I am Michele Mancini, Economist at the Bank of Italy.
My research interests are international trade and global value chains.
Google Scholar – My IDEAS
Contact me: michele.mancini (at) bancaditalia.it
new research AND UPDATES
- Quantitative assessment of the economic impact of the trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with A. Borin, F. P. Conteduca, E. Di Stefano, V. Gunnella, L. Panon, 2022, Occasional Papers, Bank of Italy, no. 700. [
link] [VoxEU column on GVCs and Russian war]
- Measuring Exposure to Risk in Global Value Chains, with A. Borin and D. Taglioni, 2021, World Bank Policy Research WP, 9785. [VoxEU column] [link] [
slides]
Check the related World Bank GVC Database here
- Reshoring and plant closures in Covid-19 times : evidence from Italian MNEs, with E. Di Stefano, G. Giovannetti, E. Marvasi, G. Vannelli, 2021, EUI RSC, 2021/94, Global Governance Programme-458. [paper]
- Check icio website here! icio is an user-friendly Stata tool to compute measures of GVC participation and trade in value-added.
New version with OECD TiVA 2021 release available!
Published in the Stata Journal (Belotti, Borin, Mancini, icio – Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output tables. Stata Journal, 2021, 21(3). [link] [slides]).
- Global Value Chains and COVID: evidence on Italian firms, with G. Giovannetti, E. Marvasi, G. Vannelli, Rivista di Politica Economica, 2020/2. [paper] [slides]. My other Covid-19 policy notes: Fighting Covid-19: measuring the restrictiveness of government policies (link); Update on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic (link, only in Italian).
- Trade and Economic Activity: Non-Linear Modelling and Forecasting, with A. Borin and A. Gazzani
[link] Motivated by the increasing role of trade in global economic developments, this paper derives novel econometric methods to forecast global trade by exploiting the relationship between economic activity and trade itself. Consistently with a simple theoretical framework, we empirically document that trade and economic activity are strongly linked, but their relation changes along the business cycle – the stronger the cycle the larger their elasticity. We find that such cyclicality depends on the low-frequency components of trade and GDP and a linear relationship is obtained by filtering those components out. These findings are exploited in an out-of-sample real time forecasting exercise that map GDP forecasts, historically significantly more accurate than projections on global trade, into world trade forecast. By both modelling explicitly the cyclical trade-GDP relationship as well as linearizing it, we obtain predictions vividly more accurate than naive linear models, nearly halving the forecast error of the IMF.
- Check the World Bank World Development Report 2020 on Global Value Chains here.
– GVC participation measures used in the Report follow the methodology from our works (Borin and Mancini, 2015, 2019).
– GVC indicators in the report can be computed in Stata with icio. See this help guide to replicate WDR2020 GVC measures.
new PUBLICATIONS
- icio – Economic Analysis with Inter-Country Input-Output tables.
Stata Journal, 2021, 21(3). [link] [slides]
with F. Belotti and A. Borin.
– WP version: Policy Research Working Paper 9156. Washington, D.C.: World Bank [link] Several new statistical tools and analytical frameworks have been recently developed to measure countries’ and sectors’ involvement in global value chains. Such a wealth of methodologies reflects the fact that different empirical questions call for distinct accounting methods and different levels of aggregation of trade flows. In this article, we describe icio, a new command for the computation of the most appropriate measures of trade in value added as well as participation in global value chains. icio follows the conceptual framework proposed by Borin and Mancini (2019, Policy Research Working Paper WPS 8804; WDR 2020 Background Paper, World Bank Group), which in turn extends, refines, and reconciles the other main contributions in this strand of the literature. icio is flexible enough to work with any intercountry input–output table and with any level of aggregation of trade flows.
Global Value Chains and COVID: evidence on Italian firms, with G. Giovannetti, E. Marvasi, G. Vannelli, Rivista di Politica Economica, 2020/2. [paper] [slides]
The pandemic shock has revived the debate on the possibility that the reshoring of production previously localized abroad has been contributing to a broader deglobalization process. The results of the Bank of Italy’s ‘Business Outlook Survey of Industrial and Service Firms’, carried out in September and October 2020, suggest that no widespread reshoring is under way in Italy, in line with the evidence for other advanced economies. Furthermore, the findings show that internationalized firms seem to have dealt better with the pandemic crisis than those who only operate in the domestic market.
My other Covid-19 policy notes: Fighting Covid-19: measuring the restrictiveness of government policies (link); Update on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic (link, only in Italian).
- EU transfers and euroscepticism: can’t buy me love?
Economic Policy, 2020. [link]
with A. Borin and E. Macchi.
The future of an institution, such as the European Union, ultimately depends on people’s support. This paper investigates whether EU redistributive policies have improved public attitudes towards European integration, both in terms of public opinion and political preferences. We focus on Cohesion Policy funds, whose allocation allows us to single out these effects by means of a regression discontinuity approach. The results show that EU transfers have mitigated the rise of Eurosceptical attitudes and reduced political consensus for anti-EU parties. The effects are homogeneous across different socio-economic groups, including the most disadvantaged ones. The improvement in public support for the EU does not appear to be exclusively a spillover of the positive economic effect of funding; we show evidence suggesting the existence of a ‘reciprocity-effect’ channel, i.e. citizens in recipient regions recognize the beneficial role of the EU as the source of funding
Michele Mancini economist global value chains international trade
Michele Mancini economist global value chains international trade icio
